Conspiracy of Cool - August 14, 2005

Once upon a time, there was a debate about global warming.

On one side of the debate, many climatologists believed that temperatures were rising on the earth's surface, in our oceans and in the atmosphere. Computer models predicted significant changes in weather patterns over time that could subject the planet's people and animals to catastrophic weather events.

On the other side of the debate were others who argued that the data demonstrating warming was inconclusive. They frequently cited reports by a pair of scientists who have been publishing reports on the temperature of the troposphere (which is the layer of the atmosphere that ends about five miles from the earth's surface). These reports have diverged from the computerized climate models and surface temperature trends, showing no warming of the troposphere.

The existence of these reports have buttressed the arguments of anyone who wanted to argue against global warming by suggesting that the science was uncertain. It has allowed the U.S. to delay taking mitigating actions which are viewed to be harmful to business, especially under this administration.

On August 12th, the NY Times (Errors Cited in Assessing Climate Data) reported that the calculations of air temperatures used in formulating those reports have been wrong all along. When the errors are adjusted for, the results not only show an increase in air temperatures--the increase is consistent with the surface temperature trends and the computer models.

That deafening click you just heard was the last piece of the puzzle snapping into place. We no longer have an excuse to fiddle while Rome sizzles.

So why isn't the sky falling? The Times article appeared in the National Section on page A12. Why not the front page like the travails of the recent space shuttle mission? Why isn't this being presented with the same urgency as other policy emergencies with far less empirical support, such as the social security deficit, or say, WMD in Iraq? Why haven't we lifted the ecological warning alert to code red?

The time has come for us to recognize the seriousness of this issue and do something about it. We cannot hope for that to happen unless our leaders and the press raise the profile of the problem and push for real solutions.